The SaaS Commercial Red Flag Score
Twelve questions you can answer from the seller's information pack and one management call, before you spend anything on diligence. Score each one, add them up, and you have a defensible read on whether the commercial case is worth paying to test.
This is deliberately the same framework we use in a paid Commercial Thesis Review. The difference is not the questions. It is that we go and find the answers management could not give you, and we tell you which of the gaps actually matter for this specific business.
How to score it
Score each question 0, 1 or 2, then add them up. Twenty-four points are available.
A high score does not mean the deal is good. It means the seller knows their own business, which is a different and much rarer thing.
Answer below and the score adds itself up. Nothing is sent anywhere, nothing is stored, and there is no email step. If you would rather work on paper, every question and every band is on this page already.
What your score means
- 19 to 24
A well-run commercial organization that measures itself. Diligence should focus on whether the plan is achievable, not whether the numbers are real.
The risk here is the forecast, not the history. A Commercial Assessment sized to the plan rather than to the numbers is the right scope.
Commercial Assessment, 4 to 8 weeks, EUR 55,000 to 85,000
- 13 to 18
Normal for this size. The gaps are the diligence scope. Worth testing before exclusivity rather than during it.
The questions you could not score are the brief. If you are already in exclusivity, that is a Commercial Assessment. If you are not, a Commercial Thesis Review first is the cheaper order to do it in.
Commercial Assessment, 4 to 8 weeks, EUR 55,000 to 85,000
- 7 to 12
Management does not have a clear picture of its own commercial performance. The price should reflect the uncertainty, and the hundred-day plan starts on day one.
Price the uncertainty rather than assuming it away. A Commercial Thesis Review establishes what is actually true before you commit to an exclusivity period.
Commercial Thesis Review, 2 to 4 weeks, from EUR 25,000
- Below 7
You are buying a story. That can still be a good deal, but only if you know it and price it that way.
Nothing here is disqualifying, but almost nothing is evidenced either. A Commercial Thesis Review needs no seller cooperation, so it runs before you have spent anything that matters.
Commercial Thesis Review, 2 to 4 weeks, from EUR 25,000
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